UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins
Women's Bantamweight · June 20, 2026
Bia Mesquita: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Melissa Mullins: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Bia Mesquita wins: 88%
Melissa Mullins wins: 12%
Most likely outcome: Bia Mesquita Decision (43%)
90% confidence intervals
Bia Mesquita: 77% – 104%
Melissa Mullins: 7% – 12%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO | 31% |
| Bia Mesquita wins by Submission | 14% |
| Bia Mesquita wins by Decision | 43% |
| Melissa Mullins wins by Decision | 8% |
| Melissa Mullins wins by Submission | 3% |
| Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO | 1% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Bia Mesquita (Corner A); negative values favor Melissa Mullins (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 156.896 |
| Striker score difference | 0.302 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.135 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.723 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.216 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.409 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.321 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.216 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -107.000 |
CI method: bootstrap