UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana
Women's Strawweight · May 16, 2026
Alice Ardelean: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Polyana Viana: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Alice Ardelean wins: 85%
Polyana Viana wins: 15%
Most likely outcome: Alice Ardelean Decision (42%)
90% confidence intervals
Alice Ardelean: 76% – 101%
Polyana Viana: 8% – 15%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alice Ardelean wins by KO/TKO | 30% |
| Alice Ardelean wins by Submission | 14% |
| Alice Ardelean wins by Decision | 42% |
| Polyana Viana wins by Decision | 9% |
| Polyana Viana wins by Submission | 3% |
| Polyana Viana wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Alice Ardelean (Corner A); negative values favor Polyana Viana (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 136.464 |
| Striker score difference | 0.205 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.057 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.217 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.845 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.360 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.237 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.251 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -56.000 |
CI method: bootstrap