UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule
Flyweight · May 16, 2026
Daniel Barez: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Luis Gurule: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Daniel Barez wins: 43%
Luis Gurule wins: 57%
Most likely outcome: Luis Gurule Decision (28%)
90% confidence intervals
Daniel Barez: 36% – 46%
Luis Gurule: 52% – 66%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Daniel Barez wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
| Daniel Barez wins by Submission | 10% |
| Daniel Barez wins by Decision | 23% |
| Luis Gurule wins by Decision | 28% |
| Luis Gurule wins by Submission | 18% |
| Luis Gurule wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Daniel Barez (Corner A); negative values favor Luis Gurule (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -13.456 |
| Striker score difference | -0.134 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.025 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.272 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.174 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.190 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1802.000 |
CI method: bootstrap