UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi
Women's Strawweight · June 6, 2026
Ketlen Souza: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Ariane Carnelossi: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Ketlen Souza wins: 93%
Ariane Carnelossi wins: 7%
Most likely outcome: Ketlen Souza KO/TKO (38%)
90% confidence intervals
Ketlen Souza: 85% – 106%
Ariane Carnelossi: 4% – 7%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO | 38% |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Submission | 20% |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Decision | 35% |
| Ariane Carnelossi wins by Decision | 5% |
| Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission | 1% |
| Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO | 1% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ketlen Souza (Corner A); negative values favor Ariane Carnelossi (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 185.485 |
| Striker score difference | 0.226 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.042 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.291 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.752 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.366 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.227 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.247 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 639.000 |
CI method: bootstrap