UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Muslim Salikhov vs Jake Matthews
Welterweight · May 30, 2026
Muslim Salikhov: 224 days idle (75% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jake Matthews: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Muslim Salikhov wins: 19%
Jake Matthews wins: 81%
Most likely outcome: Jake Matthews Decision (36%)
90% confidence intervals
Muslim Salikhov: 12% – 19%
Jake Matthews: 76% – 96%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Muslim Salikhov wins by Submission | 3% |
| Muslim Salikhov wins by Decision | 12% |
| Jake Matthews wins by Decision | 36% |
| Jake Matthews wins by Submission | 29% |
| Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Muslim Salikhov (Corner A); negative values favor Jake Matthews (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -81.468 |
| Striker score difference | -0.136 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.133 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.135 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.189 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.184 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.156 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.078 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -3723.000 |
CI method: bootstrap