UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling
Light Heavyweight · June 20, 2026
Ion Cutelaba: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Navajo Stirling: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Ion Cutelaba wins: 18%
Navajo Stirling wins: 82%
Most likely outcome: Navajo Stirling Decision (38%)
90% confidence intervals
Ion Cutelaba: 11% – 18%
Navajo Stirling: 73% – 98%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
| Ion Cutelaba wins by Submission | 3% |
| Ion Cutelaba wins by Decision | 11% |
| Navajo Stirling wins by Decision | 38% |
| Navajo Stirling wins by Submission | 29% |
| Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ion Cutelaba (Corner A); negative values favor Navajo Stirling (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -94.779 |
| Striker score difference | -0.212 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.075 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.077 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.200 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.131 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.266 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1424.000 |
CI method: bootstrap