UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez
Featherweight · June 20, 2026
Hyder Amil: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Christian Rodriguez: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Hyder Amil wins: 31%
Christian Rodriguez wins: 69%
Most likely outcome: Christian Rodriguez Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Hyder Amil: 22% – 31%
Christian Rodriguez: 65% – 82%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
| Hyder Amil wins by Submission | 6% |
| Hyder Amil wins by Decision | 18% |
| Christian Rodriguez wins by Decision | 34% |
| Christian Rodriguez wins by Submission | 22% |
| Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO | 13% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Hyder Amil (Corner A); negative values favor Christian Rodriguez (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -41.828 |
| Striker score difference | -0.073 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.070 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.212 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.118 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.215 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.180 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.031 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2760.000 |
CI method: bootstrap