UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj
Bantamweight · May 16, 2026
Timmy Cuamba: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Benardo Sopaj: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Timmy Cuamba wins: 23%
Benardo Sopaj wins: 77%
Most likely outcome: Benardo Sopaj Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Timmy Cuamba: 14% – 24%
Benardo Sopaj: 71% – 94%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
| Timmy Cuamba wins by Submission | 3% |
| Timmy Cuamba wins by Decision | 15% |
| Benardo Sopaj wins by Decision | 33% |
| Benardo Sopaj wins by Submission | 25% |
| Benardo Sopaj wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Timmy Cuamba (Corner A); negative values favor Benardo Sopaj (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -105.744 |
| Striker score difference | -0.097 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.082 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.681 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.576 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.204 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.181 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -595.000 |
CI method: bootstrap