UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben
Women's Flyweight · June 6, 2026
Win probability
Jeisla Chaves wins: 50%
Yuneisy Duben wins: 50%
Most likely outcome: Jeisla Chaves KO/TKO (17%)
90% confidence intervals
Jeisla Chaves: 0% – 300%
Yuneisy Duben: 0% – 300%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission | 17% |
| Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision | 17% |
| Yuneisy Duben wins by Decision | 17% |
| Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission | 17% |
| Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jeisla Chaves (Corner A); negative values favor Yuneisy Duben (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 0.000 |
| Striker score difference | 0.000 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 0.000 |