UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Rei Tsuruya vs Jesus Aguilar
Flyweight · May 30, 2026
Rei Tsuruya: 469 days idle (95% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jesus Aguilar: 105 days idle (28% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Rei Tsuruya wins: 56%
Jesus Aguilar wins: 44%
Most likely outcome: Rei Tsuruya Decision (27%)
90% confidence intervals
Rei Tsuruya: 48% – 63%
Jesus Aguilar: 38% – 52%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Rei Tsuruya wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
| Rei Tsuruya wins by Submission | 12% |
| Rei Tsuruya wins by Decision | 27% |
| Jesus Aguilar wins by Decision | 24% |
| Jesus Aguilar wins by Submission | 12% |
| Jesus Aguilar wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Rei Tsuruya (Corner A); negative values favor Jesus Aguilar (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 5.510 |
| Striker score difference | -0.046 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.077 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.131 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.094 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.226 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.264 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2292.000 |
CI method: bootstrap