UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo Menifield
Light Heavyweight · May 30, 2026
Zhang Mingyang: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Alonzo Menifield: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Zhang Mingyang wins: 25%
Alonzo Menifield wins: 75%
Most likely outcome: Alonzo Menifield Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Zhang Mingyang: 17% – 27%
Alonzo Menifield: 69% – 89%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
| Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission | 3% |
| Zhang Mingyang wins by Decision | 15% |
| Alonzo Menifield wins by Decision | 34% |
| Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission | 24% |
| Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Zhang Mingyang (Corner A); negative values favor Alonzo Menifield (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -98.593 |
| Striker score difference | 0.081 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.003 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.068 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.238 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.287 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.213 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.145 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3955.000 |
CI method: bootstrap