UFC Freedom 250 — Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
Lightweight · June 14, 2026
Mauricio Ruffy: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Michael Chandler: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Mauricio Ruffy wins: 89%
Michael Chandler wins: 11%
Most likely outcome: Mauricio Ruffy KO/TKO (42%)
90% confidence intervals
Mauricio Ruffy: 78% – 108%
Michael Chandler: 6% – 11%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 42% |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission | 18% |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Decision | 29% |
| Michael Chandler wins by Decision | 7% |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission | 3% |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Mauricio Ruffy (Corner A); negative values favor Michael Chandler (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 137.871 |
| Striker score difference | 0.251 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.034 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.671 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.415 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.390 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.185 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.499 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3707.000 |
CI method: bootstrap