UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler
Women's Bantamweight · June 6, 2026
Priscila Cachoeira: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Chelsea Chandler: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Priscila Cachoeira wins: 23%
Chelsea Chandler wins: 77%
Most likely outcome: Chelsea Chandler Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Priscila Cachoeira: 17% – 24%
Chelsea Chandler: 71% – 90%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
| Priscila Cachoeira wins by Submission | 3% |
| Priscila Cachoeira wins by Decision | 15% |
| Chelsea Chandler wins by Decision | 34% |
| Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission | 25% |
| Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO | 19% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Priscila Cachoeira (Corner A); negative values favor Chelsea Chandler (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -90.160 |
| Striker score difference | 0.008 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.084 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.173 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.291 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.234 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.172 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.052 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -826.000 |
CI method: bootstrap