UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Trey Ogden vs Tommy Gantt
Lightweight · May 16, 2026
Trey Ogden: 525 days idle (96% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Tommy Gantt: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Trey Ogden wins: 52%
Tommy Gantt wins: 48%
Most likely outcome: Trey Ogden Decision (35%)
90% confidence intervals
Trey Ogden: 46% – 63%
Tommy Gantt: 38% – 55%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Trey Ogden wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
| Trey Ogden wins by Submission | 6% |
| Trey Ogden wins by Decision | 35% |
| Tommy Gantt wins by Decision | 23% |
| Tommy Gantt wins by Submission | 14% |
| Tommy Gantt wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Trey Ogden (Corner A); negative values favor Tommy Gantt (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -18.470 |
| Striker score difference | -0.053 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.072 |
| Finish threat difference | -1.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.221 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.208 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1152.000 |
CI method: bootstrap