UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
Flyweight · May 30, 2026
Alex Perez: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Sumudaerji: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Alex Perez wins: 51%
Sumudaerji wins: 49%
Most likely outcome: Alex Perez Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Alex Perez: 46% – 66%
Sumudaerji: 36% – 54%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Perez wins by KO/TKO | 12% |
| Alex Perez wins by Submission | 9% |
| Alex Perez wins by Decision | 30% |
| Sumudaerji wins by Decision | 25% |
| Sumudaerji wins by Submission | 15% |
| Sumudaerji wins by KO/TKO | 9% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Alex Perez (Corner A); negative values favor Sumudaerji (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 14.200 |
| Striker score difference | -0.117 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.005 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.346 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.459 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.180 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.210 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.017 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -17.780 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1400.000 |
CI method: bootstrap