UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Bryce Mitchell vs Victor Henry
Bantamweight · June 6, 2026
Bryce Mitchell: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Victor Henry: 441 days idle (94% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Bryce Mitchell wins: 69%
Victor Henry wins: 31%
Most likely outcome: Bryce Mitchell Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Bryce Mitchell: 64% – 81%
Victor Henry: 23% – 34%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO | 23% |
| Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission | 16% |
| Bryce Mitchell wins by Decision | 31% |
| Victor Henry wins by Decision | 19% |
| Victor Henry wins by Submission | 8% |
| Victor Henry wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Bryce Mitchell (Corner A); negative values favor Victor Henry (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 61.474 |
| Striker score difference | -0.041 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.167 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.384 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.325 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.228 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.335 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.187 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2710.000 |
CI method: bootstrap