UFC Freedom 250 — Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
Lightweight · June 14, 2026
Ilia Topuria: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Justin Gaethje: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Ilia Topuria wins: 9%
Justin Gaethje wins: 91%
Most likely outcome: Justin Gaethje Decision (35%)
90% confidence intervals
Ilia Topuria: 4% – 9%
Justin Gaethje: 80% – 109%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission | 1% |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Decision | 6% |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Decision | 35% |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Submission | 35% |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO | 22% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ilia Topuria (Corner A); negative values favor Justin Gaethje (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -189.471 |
| Striker score difference | 0.164 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.048 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.048 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.413 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.335 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.237 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.071 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2990.000 |
CI method: bootstrap