UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan
Light Heavyweight · May 16, 2026
Tuco Tokkos: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Ivan Erslan: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Tuco Tokkos wins: 37%
Ivan Erslan wins: 63%
Most likely outcome: Ivan Erslan Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Tuco Tokkos: 27% – 38%
Ivan Erslan: 59% – 75%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tuco Tokkos wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
| Tuco Tokkos wins by Submission | 6% |
| Tuco Tokkos wins by Decision | 21% |
| Ivan Erslan wins by Decision | 33% |
| Ivan Erslan wins by Submission | 19% |
| Ivan Erslan wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Tuco Tokkos (Corner A); negative values favor Ivan Erslan (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -31.999 |
| Striker score difference | 0.094 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.021 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.201 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.124 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.291 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.235 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.058 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -503.000 |
CI method: bootstrap