UFC Freedom 250 — Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi
Bantamweight · June 14, 2026
Sean O'Malley: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Aiemann Zahabi: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Sean O'Malley wins: 90%
Aiemann Zahabi wins: 10%
Most likely outcome: Sean O'Malley KO/TKO (36%)
90% confidence intervals
Sean O'Malley: 84% – 102%
Aiemann Zahabi: 5% – 10%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO | 36% |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission | 24% |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 30% |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Decision | 6% |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission | 2% |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Sean O'Malley (Corner A); negative values favor Aiemann Zahabi (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 145.785 |
| Striker score difference | 0.042 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.000 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.280 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.243 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.270 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.185 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.152 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 10.160 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 2531.000 |
CI method: bootstrap