UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Women's Bantamweight · May 16, 2026
Ketlen Vieira: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Ketlen Vieira wins: 58%
Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins: 42%
Most likely outcome: Ketlen Vieira Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Ketlen Vieira: 52% – 66%
Jacqueline Cavalcanti: 35% – 49%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira wins by KO/TKO | 14% |
| Ketlen Vieira wins by Submission | 14% |
| Ketlen Vieira wins by Decision | 30% |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins by Decision | 23% |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins by Submission | 13% |
| Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Ketlen Vieira (Corner A); negative values favor Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 35.941 |
| Striker score difference | -0.268 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.095 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.004 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.013 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.134 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.259 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2195.000 |
CI method: bootstrap