UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim
Welterweight · June 6, 2026
Belal Muhammad: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Gabriel Bonfim: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Belal Muhammad wins: 40%
Gabriel Bonfim wins: 60%
Most likely outcome: Gabriel Bonfim Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Belal Muhammad: 31% – 43%
Gabriel Bonfim: 54% – 72%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO | 10% |
| Belal Muhammad wins by Submission | 7% |
| Belal Muhammad wins by Decision | 23% |
| Gabriel Bonfim wins by Decision | 30% |
| Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission | 19% |
| Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO | 11% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Belal Muhammad (Corner A); negative values favor Gabriel Bonfim (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -18.900 |
| Striker score difference | -0.125 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.009 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.348 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.067 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.191 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.210 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.004 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -3329.000 |
CI method: bootstrap