UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan
Lightweight · June 6, 2026
Fares Ziam: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Tom Nolan: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Fares Ziam wins: 59%
Tom Nolan wins: 41%
Most likely outcome: Fares Ziam Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Fares Ziam: 52% – 70%
Tom Nolan: 33% – 47%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fares Ziam wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Fares Ziam wins by Submission | 11% |
| Fares Ziam wins by Decision | 31% |
| Tom Nolan wins by Decision | 23% |
| Tom Nolan wins by Submission | 11% |
| Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Fares Ziam (Corner A); negative values favor Tom Nolan (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 33.262 |
| Striker score difference | 0.013 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.056 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.035 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.063 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.251 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.262 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.031 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1083.000 |
CI method: bootstrap