UFC Freedom 250 — Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
Heavyweight · June 14, 2026
Alex Pereira: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Ciryl Gane: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Alex Pereira wins: 1%
Ciryl Gane wins: 99%
Most likely outcome: Ciryl Gane Submission (46%)
90% confidence intervals
Alex Pereira: 0% – 1%
Ciryl Gane: 83% – 117%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 0% |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission | 0% |
| Alex Pereira wins by Decision | 1% |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Decision | 29% |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission | 46% |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO | 24% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Alex Pereira (Corner A); negative values favor Ciryl Gane (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -317.835 |
| Striker score difference | -0.522 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.009 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.498 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.908 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.050 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.192 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1010.000 |
CI method: bootstrap