UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Imanol Rodriguez vs Matt Schnell
Flyweight · June 6, 2026
Imanol Rodriguez: 112 days idle (31% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Matt Schnell: 224 days idle (75% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Imanol Rodriguez wins: 78%
Matt Schnell wins: 22%
Most likely outcome: Imanol Rodriguez KO/TKO (36%)
90% confidence intervals
Imanol Rodriguez: 65% – 99%
Matt Schnell: 13% – 24%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Imanol Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO | 36% |
| Imanol Rodriguez wins by Submission | 13% |
| Imanol Rodriguez wins by Decision | 28% |
| Matt Schnell wins by Decision | 13% |
| Matt Schnell wins by Submission | 6% |
| Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO | 3% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Imanol Rodriguez (Corner A); negative values favor Matt Schnell (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 102.360 |
| Striker score difference | 0.116 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.085 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.923 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.703 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.311 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.272 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.703 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | -10.160 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3591.000 |
CI method: bootstrap