UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Jeremiah Wells vs Nicolas Dalby
Welterweight · May 16, 2026
Jeremiah Wells: 231 days idle (76% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Nicolas Dalby: 210 days idle (71% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Jeremiah Wells wins: 58%
Nicolas Dalby wins: 42%
Most likely outcome: Jeremiah Wells Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Jeremiah Wells: 50% – 65%
Nicolas Dalby: 37% – 48%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO | 17% |
| Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission | 8% |
| Jeremiah Wells wins by Decision | 33% |
| Nicolas Dalby wins by Decision | 23% |
| Nicolas Dalby wins by Submission | 12% |
| Nicolas Dalby wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jeremiah Wells (Corner A); negative values favor Nicolas Dalby (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 16.559 |
| Striker score difference | 0.101 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.090 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.040 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.087 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.302 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.283 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.041 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 713.000 |
CI method: bootstrap