UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski
Middleweight · May 16, 2026
Cody Brundage: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Andre Petroski: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Cody Brundage wins: 59%
Andre Petroski wins: 41%
Most likely outcome: Cody Brundage Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Cody Brundage: 53% – 67%
Andre Petroski: 35% – 44%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Brundage wins by KO/TKO | 19% |
| Cody Brundage wins by Submission | 10% |
| Cody Brundage wins by Decision | 31% |
| Andre Petroski wins by Decision | 22% |
| Andre Petroski wins by Submission | 11% |
| Andre Petroski wins by KO/TKO | 7% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Cody Brundage (Corner A); negative values favor Andre Petroski (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 26.594 |
| Striker score difference | 0.106 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.021 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.267 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.121 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.297 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.206 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.163 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1069.000 |
CI method: bootstrap