UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato
Light Heavyweight · May 16, 2026
Modestas Bukauskas: 147 days idle (48% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Rodolfo Bellato: 105 days idle (28% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Modestas Bukauskas wins: 60%
Rodolfo Bellato wins: 40%
Most likely outcome: Modestas Bukauskas Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Modestas Bukauskas: 54% – 68%
Rodolfo Bellato: 34% – 44%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO | 16% |
| Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission | 10% |
| Modestas Bukauskas wins by Decision | 34% |
| Rodolfo Bellato wins by Decision | 21% |
| Rodolfo Bellato wins by Submission | 12% |
| Rodolfo Bellato wins by KO/TKO | 8% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Modestas Bukauskas (Corner A); negative values favor Rodolfo Bellato (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 18.648 |
| Striker score difference | 0.003 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.005 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.147 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.372 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.251 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.205 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -725.000 |
CI method: bootstrap