UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito
Featherweight · June 6, 2026
Jordan Leavitt: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Joanderson Brito: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Jordan Leavitt wins: 14%
Joanderson Brito wins: 86%
Most likely outcome: Joanderson Brito Decision (37%)
90% confidence intervals
Jordan Leavitt: 9% – 15%
Joanderson Brito: 75% – 101%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Leavitt wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
| Jordan Leavitt wins by Submission | 1% |
| Jordan Leavitt wins by Decision | 11% |
| Joanderson Brito wins by Decision | 37% |
| Joanderson Brito wins by Submission | 30% |
| Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO | 19% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Jordan Leavitt (Corner A); negative values favor Joanderson Brito (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -153.143 |
| Striker score difference | 0.033 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.062 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.491 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.593 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.266 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.276 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 111.000 |
CI method: bootstrap