UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Bantamweight · May 30, 2026
Song Yadong: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Deiveson Figueiredo: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Song Yadong wins: 88%
Deiveson Figueiredo wins: 12%
Most likely outcome: Song Yadong Decision (39%)
90% confidence intervals
Song Yadong: 82% – 103%
Deiveson Figueiredo: 6% – 12%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Song Yadong wins by KO/TKO | 33% |
| Song Yadong wins by Submission | 17% |
| Song Yadong wins by Decision | 39% |
| Deiveson Figueiredo wins by Decision | 7% |
| Deiveson Figueiredo wins by Submission | 2% |
| Deiveson Figueiredo wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Song Yadong (Corner A); negative values favor Deiveson Figueiredo (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 131.312 |
| Striker score difference | 0.164 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.007 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.274 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.297 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.336 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.202 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.116 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 3637.000 |
CI method: bootstrap