UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan
Middleweight · June 6, 2026
Brendan Allen: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Edmen Shahbazyan: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Brendan Allen wins: 94%
Edmen Shahbazyan wins: 6%
Most likely outcome: Brendan Allen Decision (37%)
90% confidence intervals
Brendan Allen: 89% – 104%
Edmen Shahbazyan: 3% – 6%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO | 32% |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission | 25% |
| Brendan Allen wins by Decision | 37% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Decision | 4% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission | 1% |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO | 1% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Brendan Allen (Corner A); negative values favor Edmen Shahbazyan (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 190.636 |
| Striker score difference | -0.076 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.083 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.003 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.176 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.212 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.260 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.062 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -693.000 |
CI method: bootstrap