UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Aoriqileng vs Cody Haddon
Bantamweight · May 30, 2026
Aoriqileng: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Cody Haddon: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Aoriqileng wins: 21%
Cody Haddon wins: 79%
Most likely outcome: Cody Haddon Decision (34%)
90% confidence intervals
Aoriqileng: 13% – 21%
Cody Haddon: 72% – 97%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aoriqileng wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
| Aoriqileng wins by Submission | 4% |
| Aoriqileng wins by Decision | 12% |
| Cody Haddon wins by Decision | 34% |
| Cody Haddon wins by Submission | 27% |
| Cody Haddon wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Aoriqileng (Corner A); negative values favor Cody Haddon (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -98.160 |
| Striker score difference | -0.382 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.163 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.545 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.490 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.090 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.156 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1901.000 |
CI method: bootstrap