UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
Flyweight · June 20, 2026
Allan Nascimento: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Mitch Raposo: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Allan Nascimento wins: 70%
Mitch Raposo wins: 30%
Most likely outcome: Allan Nascimento Decision (37%)
90% confidence intervals
Allan Nascimento: 63% – 81%
Mitch Raposo: 24% – 34%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Allan Nascimento wins by KO/TKO | 18% |
| Allan Nascimento wins by Submission | 15% |
| Allan Nascimento wins by Decision | 37% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by Decision | 18% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by Submission | 8% |
| Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Allan Nascimento (Corner A); negative values favor Mitch Raposo (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 70.687 |
| Striker score difference | 0.070 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.093 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.138 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.000 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.285 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.282 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2592.000 |
CI method: bootstrap