UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari
Women's Strawweight · May 16, 2026
Shauna Bannon: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Nicolle Caliari: 35 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Shauna Bannon wins: 17%
Nicolle Caliari wins: 83%
Most likely outcome: Nicolle Caliari Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Shauna Bannon: 10% – 17%
Nicolle Caliari: 74% – 101%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon wins by KO/TKO | 3% |
| Shauna Bannon wins by Submission | 2% |
| Shauna Bannon wins by Decision | 12% |
| Nicolle Caliari wins by Decision | 33% |
| Nicolle Caliari wins by Submission | 28% |
| Nicolle Caliari wins by KO/TKO | 22% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Shauna Bannon (Corner A); negative values favor Nicolle Caliari (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -141.674 |
| Striker score difference | 0.061 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.169 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.837 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.615 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.281 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.153 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1108.000 |
CI method: bootstrap