UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Loma Lookboonmee vs Jaqueline Amorim
Women's Strawweight · May 30, 2026
Loma Lookboonmee: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Jaqueline Amorim: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Loma Lookboonmee wins: 25%
Jaqueline Amorim wins: 75%
Most likely outcome: Jaqueline Amorim Decision (30%)
90% confidence intervals
Loma Lookboonmee: 17% – 27%
Jaqueline Amorim: 67% – 89%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Loma Lookboonmee wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
| Loma Lookboonmee wins by Submission | 2% |
| Loma Lookboonmee wins by Decision | 18% |
| Jaqueline Amorim wins by Decision | 30% |
| Jaqueline Amorim wins by Submission | 24% |
| Jaqueline Amorim wins by KO/TKO | 21% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Loma Lookboonmee (Corner A); negative values favor Jaqueline Amorim (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -110.881 |
| Striker score difference | 0.085 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.216 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.643 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.365 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.294 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.141 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -17.780 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 208.000 |
CI method: bootstrap