UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Flyweight · June 20, 2026
Manel Kape: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Kyoji Horiguchi: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Manel Kape wins: 72%
Kyoji Horiguchi wins: 28%
Most likely outcome: Manel Kape KO/TKO (25%)
90% confidence intervals
Manel Kape: 65% – 91%
Kyoji Horiguchi: 19% – 30%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO | 25% |
| Manel Kape wins by Submission | 22% |
| Manel Kape wins by Decision | 24% |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Decision | 16% |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission | 6% |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO | 5% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Manel Kape (Corner A); negative values favor Kyoji Horiguchi (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 65.731 |
| Striker score difference | -0.188 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.082 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.183 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.004 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.135 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.168 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.002 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 12.700 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1129.000 |
CI method: bootstrap