UFC Freedom 250 — Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis
Heavyweight · June 14, 2026
Josh Hokit: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Derrick Lewis: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Josh Hokit wins: 76%
Derrick Lewis wins: 24%
Most likely outcome: Josh Hokit Decision (43%)
90% confidence intervals
Josh Hokit: 66% – 97%
Derrick Lewis: 13% – 24%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 27% |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission | 6% |
| Josh Hokit wins by Decision | 43% |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Decision | 14% |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission | 6% |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Josh Hokit (Corner A); negative values favor Derrick Lewis (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 67.180 |
| Striker score difference | 0.420 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.080 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.357 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.602 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.498 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.262 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.400 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | -5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 4661.000 |
CI method: bootstrap