UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez
Flyweight · June 6, 2026
Bruno Silva: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Edgar Chairez: 14 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Bruno Silva wins: 29%
Edgar Chairez wins: 71%
Most likely outcome: Edgar Chairez Decision (31%)
90% confidence intervals
Bruno Silva: 21% – 31%
Edgar Chairez: 65% – 84%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO | 6% |
| Bruno Silva wins by Submission | 4% |
| Bruno Silva wins by Decision | 19% |
| Edgar Chairez wins by Decision | 31% |
| Edgar Chairez wins by Submission | 26% |
| Edgar Chairez wins by KO/TKO | 15% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Bruno Silva (Corner A); negative values favor Edgar Chairez (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | -69.015 |
| Striker score difference | -0.143 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.003 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.269 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | 0.545 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.183 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.208 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.000 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -15.240 |
| Height difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -2143.000 |
CI method: bootstrap