UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas
Flyweight · June 20, 2026
Andre Lima: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Kevin Borjas: 0 days idle (0% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Andre Lima wins: 72%
Kevin Borjas wins: 28%
Most likely outcome: Andre Lima Decision (42%)
90% confidence intervals
Andre Lima: 64% – 86%
Kevin Borjas: 19% – 28%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO | 20% |
| Andre Lima wins by Submission | 10% |
| Andre Lima wins by Decision | 42% |
| Kevin Borjas wins by Decision | 17% |
| Kevin Borjas wins by Submission | 7% |
| Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Andre Lima (Corner A); negative values favor Kevin Borjas (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 71.046 |
| Striker score difference | 0.260 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.104 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.264 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.427 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.392 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.271 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.113 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Height difference (cm) | 5.080 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 425.000 |
CI method: bootstrap