UFC Freedom 250 — Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia
Featherweight · June 14, 2026
Diego Lopes: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Steve Garcia: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Diego Lopes wins: 67%
Steve Garcia wins: 33%
Most likely outcome: Diego Lopes Decision (26%)
90% confidence intervals
Diego Lopes: 61% – 86%
Steve Garcia: 21% – 35%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO | 23% |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission | 18% |
| Diego Lopes wins by Decision | 26% |
| Steve Garcia wins by Decision | 19% |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission | 8% |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO | 6% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Diego Lopes (Corner A); negative values favor Steve Garcia (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 60.785 |
| Striker score difference | -0.327 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.020 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.011 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.362 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.093 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.212 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.176 |
| Reach difference (cm) | -7.620 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 1.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 952.000 |
CI method: bootstrap