UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Shara Magomedov vs Michel Pereira
Middleweight · June 27, 2026
Shara Magomedov: 329 days idle (89% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Michel Pereira: 119 days idle (34% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Shara Magomedov wins: 76%
Michel Pereira wins: 24%
Most likely outcome: Shara Magomedov Decision (39%)
90% confidence intervals
Shara Magomedov: 70% – 89%
Michel Pereira: 17% – 24%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shara Magomedov wins by KO/TKO | 25% |
| Shara Magomedov wins by Submission | 13% |
| Shara Magomedov wins by Decision | 39% |
| Michel Pereira wins by Decision | 14% |
| Michel Pereira wins by Submission | 6% |
| Michel Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 4% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Shara Magomedov (Corner A); negative values favor Michel Pereira (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 79.789 |
| Striker score difference | 0.154 |
| Grappler score difference | -0.047 |
| Finish threat difference | -0.014 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.362 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.331 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.177 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.087 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | 2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 222.000 |
CI method: bootstrap