UFC Freedom 250 — Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus
Middleweight · June 14, 2026
Bo Nickal: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Kyle Daukaus: 5 days idle (14% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Bo Nickal wins: 91%
Kyle Daukaus wins: 9%
Most likely outcome: Bo Nickal KO/TKO (37%)
90% confidence intervals
Bo Nickal: 85% – 103%
Kyle Daukaus: 5% – 9%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO | 37% |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission | 19% |
| Bo Nickal wins by Decision | 35% |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Decision | 6% |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission | 2% |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO | 1% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Bo Nickal (Corner A); negative values favor Kyle Daukaus (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 162.816 |
| Striker score difference | 0.090 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.070 |
| Finish threat difference | 0.252 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.319 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.291 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.268 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.348 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | 1051.000 |
CI method: bootstrap