UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman
Bantamweight · May 30, 2026
Kai Asakura: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Cameron Smotherman: 21 days idle (15% of historical bouts had a shorter idle period)
Win probability
Kai Asakura wins: 79%
Cameron Smotherman wins: 21%
Most likely outcome: Kai Asakura Decision (33%)
90% confidence intervals
Kai Asakura: 70% – 96%
Cameron Smotherman: 14% – 22%
Detailed outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO | 29% |
| Kai Asakura wins by Submission | 18% |
| Kai Asakura wins by Decision | 33% |
| Cameron Smotherman wins by Decision | 13% |
| Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission | 5% |
| Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO | 2% |
Matchup feature breakdown
Positive values favor Kai Asakura (Corner A); negative values favor Cameron Smotherman (Corner B).
| Feature | Value (A − B) |
|---|---|
| ELO differential (strength gap at fight time) | 127.364 |
| Striker score difference | 0.175 |
| Grappler score difference | 0.094 |
| Finish threat difference | 1.000 |
| Finish vulnerability difference | -0.382 |
| Striking matchup interaction | 0.345 |
| Grappling matchup interaction | 0.255 |
| Finish matchup interaction | 0.382 |
| Reach difference (cm) | 0.000 |
| Height difference (cm) | -2.540 |
| Stance matchup | 0.000 |
| Age difference (days) | -1417.000 |
CI method: bootstrap